Lesson Topics:
BTC On-Chain Update
ETH On-Chain Update
My motivation and mission:
Google sheet that contains list of all WCD lessons and links to all content:
Lesson reviewing how to use Google sheet:
BTC On-Chain Update
HODL Waves
The next HODL wave is forming... Let the FOMO begin...
Short term traders are starting to re-enter the market after exiting when BTC dropped 50% earlier in 2021.
Exchange Net Position Change
There is still a next outflow of BTC from exchanges (red is a net outflow). Although the outflow is decreasing, it still means that less supply is available on exchanges.
The more supply that is moved onto exchanges is a bearish signal because it signals that people are getting ready to liquidate their BTC holdings; the corollary is also true (the less supply on exchanges is a bullish signal).
The past few months have seen a lot of BTC moved off exchanges (liquid supply reduction). It would take several weeks/months of exchange inflows before I would get concerned.
MVRV Z-Score
See lesson 034 for a detailed explanation of MVRV Z-Score, but effectively it measures when major profit taking will begin to occur from long-time-holders who have significant gains. MVRV Z-Score of 7-9 has indicated cycle tops in the past.
Currently MVRV Z-Score < 4. I think we could see a 2x in BTC before a cycle top in BTC (Roughly $100k-$130k BTC).
ETH On-Chain Update
MVRV
Based on the current MVRV data...
MV = $4,160
MVRV = MV / RV = 2.52
RV = $1,651
In the past year, selling pressure has occurred around an MVRV on ETH around 3-3.5 (although FOMO spikes in previous cycles have gotten to about 5).
I absolutely believe in ETH long-term, but it dominates my portfolio and I am looking to rebalance. I'll start to trim when MVRV is between 3 to 3.5
MVRV = 3 >> ETH = $4,952
MVRV = 3.5 >> ETH = $5,777
If MVRV hits 5, I will sell half of my position and let the rest ride
MVRV = 5 >> ETH = $8,254
Summary
Reference Material & Social Media
In Lesson 030 I cover how to navigate and utilize the Google Sheet I have built for all WCD lessons. This Google Sheet contains a worksheet for each WCD lesson. Each sheet has all of the Excel calculations, tables, graphs, and charts that I have posted in the respective WCD lesson. Additionally, the Google Sheet has a master “Index” worksheet that has links to all of the content associated with each lesson.
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